Growth Probability Assessment
Five inputs. One number that tells you where you’re going.
Understand the odds your current trajectory reaches your target ARR on your timeline.
Test the Feasibility of
Your Growth Target
Most growth targets are set with confidence. Few are tested against the system that has to deliver them.
The Growth Probability Assessment changes that. Five inputs — current ARR, target ARR, time horizon, net revenue retention, and new logo revenue — return one number: the probability your current system reaches your target on your timeline.
It runs on Helix, Winning by Design’s proprietary growth modeling engine — the same engine that powers our Growth Guidance engagements for CEOs and boards, now available to any growth leader in minutes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Growth Probability Assessment?
The Growth Probability Assessment is the likelihood that your current system — as it is operating today — reaches your target ARR within your stated timeline.
A forecast tells you what must happen for your target to be true. Growth Probability tells you how confident you should be that your system can actually deliver it.
Most leadership teams know their target. Fewer know their odds.
How does the Growth Probability Assessment work?
The assessment takes five inputs: current ARR, target ARR, time horizon, net revenue retention, and new logo revenue. Those inputs run through Helix, our proprietary growth modeling engine, and return your Growth Probability instantly.
You also receive a short executive summary with your projected ARR, the gap to target, and the questions a board would ask about both.
What does my number tell me? What should I do with my result?
Your Growth Probability Assessment result is a starting point, not a verdict.
A high probability (70% and above) means your system has the structural capacity to reach the target.
A low probability (40% and below) means there is a gap between ambition and system reality — and closing that gap requires a different kind of intervention than working harder.
In the middle? You’re doing okay, but need to be vigilant as you are still a few tweaks away from traversing a more confident trajectory.
Wherever you land, the result tells you something useful: not just where you are headed, but how confident you should be in getting there.
An email will be sent to you (if you opt in) that will help you better understand what is driving your probability and which levers could shift it.
Is my information safe?
Yes. The assessment is fully anonymous. We do not collect or store any company-identifying information. Your inputs are used only to generate your result.